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How to lose a buyer in four texts
a masterclass on how not to sell your house

The fall market is starting to wake up (maybe those lower rates have something to do with it?), and sellers are already feeling bolder and testing fantasy numbers.
Case in point: a client of mine wanted to buy an investment property, and I found an off-market duplex that checked every box. Walkable location, long-term tenants who actually pay on time, and all the numbers penciled out. The listing agent told me their magic number: one millionnnnn dollars (read in mandatory Austin Powers voice).
We toured, my client loved it, and we immediately wrote the offer at that price. (ok fine, I also asked for a small credit because hello, never leave potential money on the table. I figured worst case, they say no and we land back at $1M anyway.)
But instead? They countered at $1,050,000 with no credit. Fifty thousand more than their own asking price. On a property that sat on the market for over 6 months last year!
Then came the texts. Confident at first, right before unraveling into full panic once they realized we weren’t going to play along.
“The sellers definitely won’t take anything less than $1.05M.”
“Just do your best.”
“Fine, they’ll take $1M. But no credit. Final offer.”
“Actually…they’ll take $995K as-is.”
So basically….. a full circle trip to nowhere. 🙃
By then, my client was over it. Luckily, another duplex popped up. Better rents, better location, better everything. We offered their list price, the contract was signed the next day, and no games were played in the process. We love a boring, undramatic deal.
So lesson of the day! Sellers: don’t overplay your hand. The market sets your price, not your wishful thinking. And buyers: good news, there are still plenty of deals to be had!

67% of your paycheck for a mortgage?? normal.
San Francisco is officially “back to normal,” but don’t picture rent deals falling from the sky. Today’s typical buyer spends 67% of their income on a mortgage, down from a face-melting 74% in 2018. Technically that’s progress. At least on paper. Like when gas prices drop 30¢ after a $2 hike and everybody calls it a win.
Oakland is about to cross the same finish line, while San Jose might take until 2027-2029. How? Prices barely moved (up only 8% since 2018) while the national median exploded 50%+. At the same time, Bay Area incomes outpaced the average, making the math a little less brutal for buyers.
But “normal” isn’t always a fairy tale ending. One bump in rates or dip in wages and the numbers stop working. Middle-income buyers are still mostly stuck on the sidelines, although flatter prices could give first-time buyers a real shot and push sellers to price more competitively and sweeten the deal.
The Bay Area didn’t quite solve their housing crisis, but it did time-travel to an older, slightly less feral version of expensive. Nostalgia, but rebranded as progress. Yay.
BUILDERS GONE WILD
In a strange turn of events, brand new houses are now cheaper than old ones. The median price for new construction is about $401k (not to be confused with your retirement account), while pre-loved, broken-in, lived-in (pick your favorite euphemism) homes are sitting closer to $435k.
Normally, the logic is that shiny = $$$$. You’re supposed to pay extra for granite countertops no toddler has ever sharpied. But not this year. Builders went wild, and now they’re sitting on the largest unsold inventory in 16 years. To unload them, two-thirds are dangling free interest rate buydowns like Costco samples for your 30-year fixed loans.
Factor in upkeep and the math favors the new: maintenance averages ~1% of value annually for new builds versus up to 5% for older homes. That charming fixer can bleed $14k a year, while the cookie-cutter spec house just…works.
Character costs a premium, and boring is actually a bargain. In this market, the safe suburban box might be the move. Now who wants to shop a good sale??
Houseplants > Full Remodels
After two years of falling sales, Home Depot finally squeaked out a 1% gain. Not very sexy, but better than last year’s 3.3% drop.
But the shopping lists have changed. People aren’t gutting kitchens or building a backyard oasis anymore. They’re buying light fixtures. Some mulch. A dramatic houseplant if they’re feeling reckless. Mini makeovers while the big projects wait for rates to chill. (But did you hear? They are in fact starting to chill.)
Home improvement is basically an emotional seismograph for the economy. Small fixes = cautious optimism. Big remodels = full trust in the world. And right now, the world cannot be trusted (have you seen the news lately?). Yet homeowners are still tapping into their home equity lines for little upgrades here and there. Which means hope isn’t allll the way gone…..yet.
If you’ve ever gone to Home Depot “just to browse” and somehow left $300 poorer with a fiddle leaf fig you didn’t need, then congrats. You are the economy. And so am I.

TELL A FRIEND (OR THREE)
Got a friend buying, selling, or just thinking about making a move? Bay Area or not, I can help! Reply with their info, and I’ll take it from there. And if you know someone who’d actually read this newsletter, forward away. Referrals, shares, and general hype-spreading earn you good karma, bragging rights, and my eternal gratitude. 💌