SF condos are having a hot girl summer

...but the market’s still giving split personality

Author

Michaela To
August 18, 2025

Well, the jobs report came in and it was…not it. July added a measly 73,000 jobs. Cue the collective gasp from economists everywhere. And just to twist the knife, May and June got revised down by a combined 258,000. So much for all that “stability” we thought we had. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, which doesn’t sound dramatic unless you’ve been job hunting lately. Then you know the Fed’s claims that everything is “solid” is actually anything but.

Still, there’s a silver(ish) lining: markets are pretty sure we’ll get a rate cut in September (fingers crossed), and whispers of a second one before year’s end are sounding less delusional by the day, despite inflation not getting the memo. Rates are already at its lowest since October, and if that continues, it could finally shake housing out of its funk: first-time buyers trapped in rental purgatory, sellers handcuffed to their sub-4% mortgages, and inventory deep in hibernation. We’ll take a win where we can get it.

Meanwhile, consumer demand is cooling, confidence is wobbly, and spending habits are starting to look more like coping mechanisms than optimism (see: emotional support Labubus). Add in messy CPI data and staffing drama at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and you get an economy that’s trying its best but also kind of spiraling. Relatable.

Anyhoo, this is just a long-winded way to say: if you’ve been waiting to buy, borrow, refinance, sell (or simply stop doom-scrolling), this might just be your sign. ✨

Breaking up is (not) hard to do

When a buyer gets their offer accepted (Source: Giphy)

June was peak commitment-phobia. Nearly 15% of all pending home sales in the U.S. (that’s over 57,000+ deals!) fell through, the highest June cancellation rate Redfin’s ever tracked. Some buyers found something shinier, others got spooked by inspection reports, and plenty stared at the mortgage math and said “actually….nevermind.” With prices still high, rates hovering at uncomfy levels, and economic jitters in the air, buyers today are cautious and quicker to walk than ever.

In Alameda County, the fallout was obvious: the sale-to-list ratio slid to 104.2% (down three points), only 53.5% of homes sold above asking (a dramatic 17-point plunge), and almost a third of listings saw price reductions (up eight points, yikes).

Or in regular people speak: Buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years. And sellers are shifting to “whatever it takes” mode: price cuts, concessions, and open houses with enough catering to rival a small wedding. (Pro tip: show up hungry and bring stretchy pants.)

SF housing is getting spiiiicy

oooh! (Source: Giphy)

Tech is back. And this time, it’s 20-something founders raising $50B (yes, with a B) in AI funding just this year, while engineers are pulling $250k salaries like it’s no big deal. While old school tech money once flocked to Silicon Valley suburbia, this new wave wants walkable, latte-adjacent, DoorDash-in-10-minutes, architecturally cool city living.

And it’s not just housing that’s heating up. Office demand is up 40% quarter over quarter, with AI firms hoarding square footage like it’s toilet paper in 2020. After years of ghost town vibes, those once-sleepy blocks are back to feeling like actual city streets.

Enter the mini bidding wars in SOMA, Mission Bay, and Hayes Valley. Nothing unhinged (yet), but enough to get condos and lofts moving again. In July 2025, SF’s median home sales price spiked 5.2%, hitting $1.71M, even as the rest of the Bay Area slid downhill.

Rents are way up too (because of course they are). Most of these tech kids aren’t ready to buy yet, but they’ll happily rent a place with a rooftop. Not quite $4k junior studio levels yet, but landlords are definitely smiling again.

The market is going through a bit of an identity crisis (aren’t we all) and split into three personalities: AI money chasing luxury condos with walkability; middle market buyers waiting for lower rates, better deals, or divine intervention; and first-timers priced out by cash and code.

Will this spill over to the East Bay? If history (and rent fatigue) repeats itself, Oakland and Berkeley will be next. And speaking of East Bay condos (that I totally brought up just to shamelessly plug my listings), I happen to have two contenders lined up: one Bart-adjacent, restaurant-surrounded condo and one dramatically architecturally design-y stunning space — both waiting for someone to practically STEAL before the ripple effect hits.

Wait… Did California Just Make It Easier to Build Stuff?

so easy that your new contractor might be in kindergarten (Source: Giphy)

In a shocking plot twist, California (the same state where it takes longer to get a permit than a PhD) just did something wildly off-brand: it made it faster to build.

For decades, CEQA (the California Environmental Quality Act) has been the red tape queen, requiring developers to prove their projects won’t destroy the planet before breaking ground. But last month, Governor Newsom gave lawmakers an ultimatum: pass my CEQA overhaul or I veto the state budget. Lawmakers caved.

Now, projects that check the right boxes (housing, clinics, food banks, even chip factories) can skip CEQA’s years-long review spiral. Plus, $40B in funding is on the table to build 2.5 million new homes in six years. Developers and YIMBYs are ecstatic. Environmental and labor groups, not so much.

Newsom swears this is climate policy: more homes in cities = fewer car commutes = cleaner air. The good news: this could fix housing. The bad news: your compulsive 2am Zillow habit probably isn’t going anywhere.

TELL A FRIEND (OR THREE)

Got a friend buying, selling, or just thinking about making a move? Bay Area or not, I can help! Reply with their info, and I’ll take it from there. And if you know someone who’d actually read this newsletter, forward away. Referrals, shares, and general hype-spreading earn you good karma, bragging rights, and my eternal gratitude. 💌