Spoiler: houses don't build themselves

Meanwhile: the kids are still at home.

While immigration policy squeezes one end of the housing pipeline, lifestyle changes are clogging the other.

Nearly 1 in 5 adults aged 25–34 are living with their parents. In parts of California, it’s closer to 1 in 3. Faced with tiny studio apartments, the emotional weight of adulting, and $17 salads, many decided “I’m good here, thanks.”

Everything is delayed: school lasts longer, marriage is on hold, parenthood is a maybe. The median first-time homebuyer is now 38 — ten years older than in the early ’90s.

Demographics add some nuance. Young men are more likely to stay home than women. Asian, Hispanic, and Black adults are more likely to live with family than their white peers, reflecting norms around putting family first. Some of the cheapest cities have high stay-at-home rates, while some of the priciest don’t. So it’s not just about the money. It’s also values, culture, and even dating.

Financially, it makes sense. Socially… not so much. Because nothing kills a first date like your mom breaking out the baby photos before you even leave the house. Are they single because they live at home? Or living at home because they’re single? Either way, dating from your childhood bedroom hits different.

So what do dating dilemmas have to do with real estate? A lot! When first-time buyers show up a decade later, that’s ten years of delayed demand. Those in their 20s and 30s are looking for something in between: rentals with space, privacy, and flexibility aka homes that feel grown-up but not forever. Today’s “starter home” buyers are now in their 30s and 40s. They’re not looking for projects or square footage; they want low-maintenance, well-designed homes that fit the lives they’re actually living.

So the market isn’t (completely) broken. Just on a different timeline that currently looks a lot like a twin bed, a shared kitchen, and a buyer who’s finally ready to move out.

Sellers are waving. But buyers aren’t looking.

Inventory is piling up. As of April, there are 83.5% more condos listed than condo buyers. That’s…..a lot. Townhouses have a 33% seller surplus. Even single-family homes (the golden child of U.S. real estate) are seeing 27.8% more sellers than buyers.

The housing market is officially out of sync. For the first time in 12 years, the power dynamic has flipped — sellers now outnumber buyers by half a million. Half. A. Million.

Nearly half of homes listed in April didn’t sell within 60 days. Sellers are doing the market equivalent of waving wildly across the bar, and buyers are avoiding eye contact.

Redfin’s predicting a 1% price dip by year’s end. Not dramatic, but enough to signal a soft reset. And maybe a window of opportunity?? Because once rates drop, the crowds will come rushing back.

Don’t make future me say “I told you so.” (Because I definitely will.)

Optimistic? Anxious? Why not both.

Consumers: “maybe not a total disaster?” After five months of meh, consumer confidence rose in May. Thanks to the US/China trade truce and a solid S&P 500 run. But job market anxiety is still high, and while housing interest is (kind of?) coming back, it’s still more like “just browsing” than “let’s write an offer.”

CEOs: deeply unwell. CEO confidence just had its worst quarterly drop ever. Like, record-breaking bad. 83% are betting on a recession in the next 12–18 months. No mass layoffs (yet), but geopolitics, tariffs, and lawsuits have them spiraling.

Inflation: cooling. The Fed’s favorite inflation metric (PCE) rose just 0.1% in April. Core inflation hit its lowest point since 2021. Yay? Maybe. Retailers are already hinting at price hikes, so we’ll see what my next Target run has to say about that.

Housing: stuck in limbo. Mortgage rates are stubbornly high, delinquencies are flat, and homebuilders have been ghosting the market for three straight months, even on single-family projects. At this point, everyone’s just waiting to see who blinks first.

TL;DR: Optimism and anxiety are dancing in tandem (honestly same). Consumers want to believe things are getting better. CEOs think they’re about to get worse. And the housing market is just... holding its breath.