the market looks calm. it’s not that calm.

The K-shaped economy is alive and well, and very apparent in real estate. Even just within Oakland, at the lower end of the market (around $750k and under), things feel a little stagnant. Prices are flat, listings are lingering, and buyers aren’t in any rush.

And then, in a completely different universe, the $2M+ market is doing perfectly fine. Thriving, even. Whether it's true buyer confidence or just a lack of inventory at that price point (a little of both?), prices are up about 6%. So two buyers can be in the same city, same week, and have completely opposite experiences. One feels like nothing is happening, while the other feels like they’re losing every offer.

More homes are going into contract, but there are fewer homes to choose from, so buyers are fighting over a much smaller pool (never a peaceful activity). Homes are moving faster, overbidding is coming back, and price cuts are getting rarer. Higher-end single families are hot. Condos are very much not. (Story of the last two years.)

San Francisco is also having a moment (yes I know, I won’t shut up about it). Historically, SF usually moves first. When it tightens up, it spills over across the bridge. Buyers either get priced out or decide they want more space for their money — a pattern we’ve seen play out before.

Despite our uncertain circumstances (state of the world, etc), the market is mostly doing what it usually does this time of year. So either things are more stable than they feel, or we’re all just collectively dissociating. The answer might be C, all of the above.

technically rich, practically poor.

Americans have about $11 TRILLION (my baby brain cannot compute such an abstract number) in tappable home equity right now, with the average homeowner holding roughly $300k. Except only about 3% of it was used last year.

The disconnect is almost impressive. The people who have the equity (older, wealthier homeowners) don’t really need it. The people who need liquidity (younger buyers, renters, everyone clutching their wallet at checkout) can’t access it. So the wealth is there, just not in the hands of the people who would actually use it.

And even if you do have equity, you’re probably locked into a 3% mortgage and staring at today’s rates like nope, i’ll stay right here, thx. So instead, everyone stays put, protects their golden handcuffs, and the cycle continues.

End result: homeowners are technically richer than ever and still feel broke. We have a massive pile of housing wealth, just sitting there, looking pretty, doing the least.

this house accepts anthropic

A guy named Storm Duncan — yes that’s his real name, yes he owns a compound — has a proposal. He’s trying to sell his 13-acre estate in Mill Valley, complete with an infinity pool, hot tub, putting green, panoramic views of the bay and Mount Tam. Asking price: someone’s equity in Anthropic.

His reasoning is actually… kind of logical? He has too much in real estate, not enough in AI, and somewhere out there is an Anthropic employee sitting on the exact opposite problem. So naturally, he trades. Diversification, but make it private market.

He even made a LinkedIn page for the house to find the right buyer. As one does. The property last sold for $4.75M (originally listed at $10.8M yeesh). Now it’s being priced off an ~$800B valuation, with the share count “to be negotiated.” A professional way of saying we’ll figure it out later based on vibes and conviction.

At first, this just sounds like a quirky real estate story. But really, this is what it looks like when wealth moves faster than the systems built to contain it. When cash starts to feel inconvenient (a very specific kind of problem), you get trades like this. A house for stock. Stability for upside. Something you can live in for something that *might* change your life. This is either completely unhinged or extremely rational. Which, at this point, are slowly becoming the same thing.