Your next sofa is caught in a trade war

tariffs, tantrums, and a very delayed delivery window

As of this writing, the government is still shut down. And so am I. But only emotionally. Otherwise, I am still very much alive, open for business, and haunting your inbox with another market update.

The Fed cut a quarter-point off its rate in its first 2025 cut, but so far… not much has changed. Now everyone’s on the edge of their seats to see if more cuts are coming before year’s end. Probably late October and again in December, according to my imaginary crystal ball. Inflation is creeping up, stocks are soaring (most days at least), and consumer confidence is still face down on the couch. Unless you’re sitting on a healthy portfolio, in which case, the vibes are fine and everything is peachy.

Meanwhile, fall showed up right on schedule. New listings popped in September (as they usually do post-summer), and compared to last year, we saw more homes go into contract, more closings, and more luxury activity. Inventory and overbidding held steady (or even slightly improved), which is a tiny win for both buyers and sellers. Love when everyone is mildly happy.

Prices, however, took a step back. Q3 median home and condo prices dipped year-over-year, with condo prices hitting their lowest point in over eight years. Oof. Tune in next month to see where the spooky season is headed before the usual November slowdown hits and everyone swaps open houses for holiday parties. (Speaking of which, I love a good holiday party. Hint hint wink wink.)

Zoning? Never heard of her.

terry crews walked 1,000 miles so you could live 10 feet from bart (Source: Giphy)

The train is leaving the station, and so are all the zoning laws. Newsom just signed SB 79, a new law that basically tells cities: no more gatekeeping the area around your train stations. Developers can now build taller, denser housing near BART, Caltrain, and major bus stops, even if local restrictions say otherwise.

That means that cute two-story strip by your train station could be nine stories soon. The rule goes: up to nine floors right next to heavy rail, seven within a quarter mile, six within a half. For smaller transit lines, it scales down, but the idea is the same: if it connects people, it can go up. California finally decided to stop pretending you can fix a housing crisis with parking lots.

There’s a catch (or a promise, depending who you ask): 7-13% of units have to be affordable, and transit agencies can build housing on their own land too. Like apartment buildings over bus stations. Not glamorous, but potentially kind of genius?

Supporters are calling this a climate win and a housing sanity check: fewer cars, shorter commutes, and maybe, juuust maybe, more homes regular people can actually live in. But not everyone’s on board. Critics say it could speed up gentrification or stress local infrastructure. Because adding height doesn’t automatically add equity. It just adds… well, height.

Still, the law kicks in July 2026, giving cities less than a year to figure it out before the cranes roll in. Housing built on transit, not traffic — imagine that. Goodbye, two-hour commutes. Hellooo, sanity.

YIMBY 1, NIMBY 0

yes in my backyard! (Source: Giphy)

While we’re on the topic of housing experiments, San Jose just pulled off something kind of wild: you can now buy someone’s backyard. Like the tiny house behind their main house. Yes, that’s officially for sale!

All thanks to a new California law (AB 1033) that lets homeowners split off and sell their ADUs (accessory dwelling units) as condos. San Jose is the first city to make it happen, and the first sale just went through.

It’s basically a housing cheat code. Homeowners get to cash out a piece of their property, and buyers get a shot at ownership without needing $1.5++ million and a blood pact with Chase Bank. Developers like AlphaX RE Capital are already circling and promising to build “dozens more.”

Other cities (hi Berkeley, Santa Cruz, SF 👀) are watching closely. Because if this works, affordability won’t mean fleeing the state, it’ll just mean moving into someone else’s backyard.

Bad news for couch potatoes

Moving Friends Tv GIF

furniture companies be like (Source: Giphy)

America’s favorite furniture brands are getting whiplash, and not from all those reclining chairs.

Trump just dropped a new round of tariffs, and the fallout was immediate. A casual 50% on imported cabinets and vanities and 30% on upholstered furniture. Wayfair, Williams-Sonoma, and RH’s stocks went tumbling, as they do when half your catalog comes from overseas. Even Ikea, the global benchmark for affordable design, is now forced to bump prices. Meanwhile, La-Z-Boy and Ethan Allen saw an unexpected boost. Turns out, when your couches don’t need passports, “Made in America” hits a little different. Who would’ve thunk?

But obviously, you can’t just pop up a factory in Ohio overnight. Re-shoring sounds nice until you realize it takes years — money, machines, and, you know, actual people who want to build furniture again. Some brands are panic-moving production from China to Vietnam or Mexico, but that’s more band-aid than master plan.

In the short term, retailers might coast through the holidays with pre-tariff inventory. Long term, expect higher prices, slower shipping, and more out of stock tags in your online cart.

All of this to say that your next sofa might cost more and take forever to arrive. Guess we’re all sitting this one out. Literally!

TELL A FRIEND (OR THREE)

Got a friend buying, selling, or just thinking about making a move? Bay Area or not, I can help! Reply with their info, and I’ll take it from there. And if you know someone who’d actually read this newsletter, forward away. Referrals, shares, and general hype-spreading earn you good karma, bragging rights, and my eternal gratitude. 💌